Thinking About Fourth Quarter Expectations

Today’s big question is what’s in store for fourth quarter 2019? With good reason, many of us are on edge with the unprecedented uncertainty we’re experiencing both nationally and internationally. It’s safe to say these are strange times.

Having seen several market cycles over the years, both good and bad, I believe when trying to hypothesize, it’s best to keep it local. It’s natural to have global concerns, but when talking about your home’s value, it’s really about your community. Politics can have some effect, but it’s my belief that the stock market and housing market cycles are a better determinate of future activity. So, as long as nothing too crazy happens in the stock market, we’re positioned to have a steady last quarter.

I’ve been touting for quite some time that Arcadia has too many spec homes. This has been detrimental to the resale market. The good news is that spec builders aren’t buying much at the moment, so once we sell through the current inventory, things will get back to normal with pricing realignment.

In Paradise Valley, specs are still being built at a pretty strong clip, but the activity in PV has been much stronger than in Arcadia this year. If your next question is “Why is that?” The easy answer is that when Arcadia prices soar, buyers head to PV and when Paradise Valley prices soar, buyers head to Arcadia. Loyal fans of either area will not be swayed, but with the consistent influx of out of state buyers, price is definitely a driving factor when choosing between the two.

I will share with you one piece of information that has always been true. Presidential election years tend to be tough on the home market. If you’re highly motivated to make your move, then it’s time to list your home and price it correctly. Things may just get a little sticky after first quarter of 2020.

If you want to discuss the market in further detail, I’m happy to talk anytime. Please reach out, I’m never too busy to talk, it’s what I enjoy most!

Wishing you a happy, healthy and prosperous fourth quarter!

Thanks for Reading,

--Robert